You can't claim that an event is predictable to the person doing the event. So if you blow up the world, it cannot be a black swan because you had knowledge of the event beforehand? Take any event that you think someone was genius enough to predict and let's see if they can do it again. You will find that they can't. The reason is because they got lucky the first time. There were a lot of guys who were short the market going into the 87 crash that never made a single dime trading ever again. It's the proverbial "even a broken clock is right twice a day". Take the guy that buys a winning lottery ticket. That's an event that was predicted by the ticket buyer. The guy got lucky and if he bought another million tickets, it's highly unlikely he would win again because of his ability to pick winning tickets. Of course, he could get "lucky" again. Similarly you cannot say that 9/11 was predictable. There were a million things that had to go exactly perfectly that day in order for those 13 hijackers to do what they did. Had the weather not been absolutely perfect that day, had there been limited visibility, those planes would not have made it anywhere near the WTC. The fact that people warned it was a likely event, does not make it so. The fact of the matter is if that event were tried again, without the exact conditions that allowed it to happen the first time; it would not be successfully pulled off.
There is something called the unknown unknowns. Things we don't know that we don't know. And there really is no way for anyone to "accurately" predict what we don't know we don't know. That most of what happens in life is very random. People who are charlatans try to sell their "skills" when in fact, they are simply lucky. The true test of skill is repeatability. Can that "skilled" person do it again? For example, Tiger Woods sinks a 45 foot put. Someone says he got lucky. Tiger Woods then goes on to sink that exact same put 100 more times in his career. That is called "skill". If you happen to sink that put once in your life, should you then try to go around the country and sell yourself as a professional golf instructor who can put just as good as Tiger Woods?
There is something called the unknown unknowns. Things we don't know that we don't know. And there really is no way for anyone to "accurately" predict what we don't know we don't know. That most of what happens in life is very random. People who are charlatans try to sell their "skills" when in fact, they are simply lucky. The true test of skill is repeatability. Can that "skilled" person do it again? For example, Tiger Woods sinks a 45 foot put. Someone says he got lucky. Tiger Woods then goes on to sink that exact same put 100 more times in his career. That is called "skill". If you happen to sink that put once in your life, should you then try to go around the country and sell yourself as a professional golf instructor who can put just as good as Tiger Woods?