If you want to do analytical work on the economy, go to school, get an economics degree and become an economist. At least that way you will get paid a decent salary to analyze all day and you will get paid either way, right or wrong. But if you want to trade, then trade. Trade the price action. Don't mix the fundamentals with trading. You are going to blow out if you trade like that. Could the housing market collapse? Of course it could. It could happen next year, it could happen 10 years from now. You need to get paid TODAY. That is what a trader does.