Perceived Edge

The edge in a casino is defined because they actually create the edge. It's kind of like the edge a broker has for charging you commissions. Or the edge a bookie has for taking 10% of your winnings. This is not the same edge that a quant has. A quant has something called perceived edge. It's not really real. He perceives it to be real. So there is a difference. For example, it's possible that he might have a huge edge on a trade and still lose a fortune. The only true edge that exists is the edge the MM has by earning the spread on a two-sided market and then hedging his risk. Outside of that, edge get's really fuzzy. Quants on option trading desks generally create models that allow traders to hedge portfolios more effectively or create arbitrage opportunities through synthetic opportunities. But once you go further out on the timeline, the quants have no edge over you. Think about it for a second. What is the biggest equation they have to solve? Volatility right? Well what happens to volatility as you go further out. You increase your uncertainty right. This is why vega is so sensitive on back month options. Well, it is almost impossible with any degree of certainty to predict long term volatility. Hell, it’s almost impossible to predict short term volatility. So if you are trading options over a long time period you cannot be at the mercy of any so-called quant and the perceived edge he thinks he has. The only edge that you need in options trading is for the market to move and to be open. Then you’re in business.