Successful people are very much the benefactors of random good luck. There is no time frame on randomness. It can exist for years, if not decades. The problem is how do you measure success. Do you measure it by money, by percentage return, by number of years trading? Good traders are people who can continue to make money year in and year out without blowing up. If you blow up, it tends to mean you took an unacceptable risk or you were ignorant of your risk, either way, not the marks of a good trader. People who win the lottery are not all that special, just very lucky. Suppose you gave 100 million dollars in real money to a bunch of people to trade with. How many guys would still have money left at the end of one year? Five years? And ten years? Maybe one or two people. It's not making the money that’s the hard part, it's keeping it. And most guys don't know how to keep it.