Casinos And Options

Casinos are not a good analogy. The edge a casino has is defined. The edge in options is perceived. In a casino, when you play roulette there are 38 numbers on the table and if you win, they don't pay you 38 to 1 but rather 36 to 1 (due to the 0 and 00 on the wheel). This edge is real and defined. If you are trading deltas, you cannot have edge per se. Unless you feel you have a directional trading system that provides you with "perceived" edge. Adding deltas is not creating an edge. That is akin to me saying I think GOOG is a buy here at $500 a share. Instead of buying 100 shares, I'll buy 200 shares and have twice the edge!!! No, it doesn't work that way. The delta of your option has nothing to do with edge. If the delta you are selling is a 30 delta option and it should be a 25 delta option that does not equate to more edge or any edge at all. Delta is "loosely" regarded as the probability of an option finishing in the money or not but again, this has been proven mathematically to be incorrect. It's just a way of helping people understand delta better. If we know for a fact how many shares need to be bought or sold dynamically to replicate a risk free position, there would be no risk! If you are selling an option that you think has a 25% probability of being ITM and you are getting paid as if it were a 30% bet, one of you is wrong!